Obama and the Swing States
For all Democrats concerned about Barack Obama’s chances in November, I have some good news: the electoral map is in our favor this year. I know that goes against what every pundit and DLC member (and your own brain if you lived through 2000 and 2004) tells you, but it’s true. As long as Barack Obama can win the states that ought to be expected to go for any Democrat, his odds at winning the general are clearly better than McCain’s. Details below…
So here’s a list of the states I think we can all agree will certainly go for Obama, barring some kind of spectacular flameout (respective electoral votes in parentheses):
California (55)
Connecticut (7)
D.C. (3)
Delaware (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (21)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
New Jersey (15)
New York (31)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
That’s 12 states plus the District of Columbia. The total number of electoral votes this list puts in Obama’s pocket is 172. Now here are the states that will undoubtedly go for McCain (including Virginia — yes, it could be a swing state in a few years, but we’re not there yet):
Alabama (9)
Arizona (10)
Arkansas (6)
Georgia (15)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (9)
Mississippi (6)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Utah (5)
Virginia (13)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)
That’s 18 states, but many of those are rural and sparsely populated so they total just 138 votes. So right away, with just the states we can assign right off the bat, Obama has the electoral lead.
Of course, most of the remaining states will not be true swing states. So let’s see where we can assign them:
Alaska (3) - Normally very dependably Republican, would be a definite McCain state if Hillary won the nomination. She didn’t, though, and Barack has a surprising amount of early popularity here, thanks in large part to a good ground campaign during the primaries. Still, history dictates we give this one to McCain.
Colorado (9) - Hasn’t gone blue since ‘92, but has been trending that way over the last few years. With Obama’s popularity in the region, I’m calling this one a swing state.
Florida (27) - Its voting population dictates this is a true swing state, even though Republicans have the stronger state government by far. Worth noting that should McCain select Gov. Charlie Crist as his running mate, he’ll probably be able to claim this prize early, which would be huge (but not the end of the world, as you’ll see).
Indiana (11) - Early polls show a dead heat, but this state went for Bush over Kerry by over 20 percent four years ago. We’ll give this to McCain.
Iowa (7) - Kerry somehow managed to lose this one, but the Democrats should generally be able to win here. Obama has a good amount of popularity in part because the state borders Illinois, so we’ll give it to him.
Michigan (17) - Democrats tend to win it by slim margins, but Obama will have to make sure he hasn’t burned too many bridges over the primary scuffle. He should still be better equipped to compete here than McCain.
Minnesota (10) - Also a pretty close state, but they appear to like Obama a lot so far.
Missouri (11) - Potentially a swing state, though McCain looks a lot better than Obama for now.
Montana (3) - State is trending blue in a big way lately, and Barack has a ton of appeal in the region. Nonetheless, I’m giving it to McCain due to historical advantage.
Nebraska (5) - Oddly close in polls right now, but it probably won’t stay that way. McCain should take this one.
Nevada (5) - Kerry made this a close one in 2004, but it still looks like a McCain state.
New Hampshire (4) - A split state, very unique in New England. McCain’s “maverick” image will play well here.
New Mexico (5) - This is one of the most evenly split states in the country right now — Bush beat Kerry here by a little over 1%. Swing state.
Ohio (20) - The heartbreaker in 2004, and another big swing state.
Oregon (7) - Close, but you always have to give the edge to the Democrats here, and Obama’s expected to win the primary on May 20th (even if Hillary is still campaigning futilely).
Pennsylvania (21) - Republicans always try to make this one a swing state, but the Democratic machine is very strong here. Sure they prefer Hillary, but Obama should still pull it off.
South Carolina (8) - Potentially closer than I think a lot of people realize, but still likely McCain country.
Texas (34) - Usually the big Republican winner, but Obama looks prepared to make it excitingly competitive. Still a McCain state though.
Washington (11) - Much like Oregon, close but presumably an Obama state.
Wisconsin (10) - Big time swing state. Kerry beat Bush by less than one half of one percent in ‘04, and McCain will certainly put up a fight here.
So out of that list, tack on 9 more states for McCain and 6 more states for Obama. The other five could truly go either way. In terms of electoral votes, Obama gets another 73, which added to his initial 172 totals 245. McCain adds 84 electoral votes, which brings his total from 138 to 222. For McCain to win the election, he needs 270 votes; Obama needs 269 (we’ll discuss why in a minute). That means out of the five swing states — Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin — Obama needs to accumulate just 24 more votes, while McCain needs another 48.
So, if it does play out this way in November and 45 states plus D.C. go the way I think they will, that means the election will end up one of 32 different ways depending on the swing states. Here is a chart showing the totals for each possibility:
Out of 32 outcomes, McCain wins in eight and Obama wins in 24. If John McCain wins Florida, the biggest of the five, he still wins in just eight of sixteen scenarios. Even if John McCain wins the two big jackpots here, Florida and Ohio, an Obama win in the other three states ties the electoral vote at 269-269. When the vote ties, the House determines the President and the Senate determines the Vice President. The Democrats have a majority in both, so a tie means a win for Obama.
On the other hand, if Obama wins Florida, he wins the election, even if McCain takes the other four states. If Obama wins Ohio plus any one of the other four, he wins.
Of course, even though Obama can actually (barely) win sans Ohio and Florida, don’t expect this election to be any less focused on those two states than 2004. Just expect to be hearing a little bit more this time about Colorado, New Mexico, and Wisconsin as well, because those may be just as significant this time around.
Endorsements from high-profile swing state Democrats:
Bill Ritter, Dem. Governor of Colorado - no endorsement yet
Ken Salazar, Dem. Senator from Colorado - no endorsement yet
Bill Nelson, Dem. Senator from Florida - endorsed Clinton
Ted Strickland, Dem. Governor of Ohio - endorsed Clinton
Sherrod Brown, Dem. Senator from Ohio - no endorsement yet
Bill Richardson, Dem. Governor of New Mexico - endorsed Obama
Jeff Bingaman, Dem. Senator from New Mexico - endorsed Obama
Jim Doyle, Dem. Governor of Wisconsin - endorsed Obama
Russ Feingold, Dem. Senator from Wisconsin - no official endorsement, “inclined” to support Obama
Herb Kohl, Dem. Senator from Wisconsin - no endorsement yet
NOTE: with high-profile endorsements of Obama in New Mexico and Wisconsin and Clinton endorsements in Florida and Ohio, you can bet Obama is working full time to obtain very public endorsements from Ritter and Salazar in Colorado.
Endorsements from high-profile swing state Republicans:
Wayne Allard, Rep. Senator from Colorado - endorsed McCain
Charlie Crist, Rep. Governor of Florida - endorsed McCain
George Voinovich, Rep. Senator from Ohio - endorsed McCain
Pete Domenici, retiring Rep. Senator from New Mexico - endorsed McCain
Mel Martinez, Rep. Senator from Florida - endorsed McCain