CNN: Where’s the diversity at the Oscars?

I really mean it about the “whiter” bit. Not only is the ceremony to be hosted by beloved caucasian icons Anne Hathaway and James Franco, but from what I can see there is a virtual zero percent chance that we see any nonwhite actors or directors nominated (possibly screenwriters too, but I’m not as sure because I don’t know what any of them look like and don’t really care to [and anyway Aaron Sorkin is probably white enough to cancel out anyone who isn't]). The only black actor with even the remotest of chances at a nomination is Halle Berry, who scored a (typically meaningless) Golden Globe nod for a movie called Frankie and Alice that currently has a 20% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. If her name does somehow show up on Oscar nomination day, you can be assured this was done strictly to mitigate this whitepocalypse of a ceremony.

And it really is a shame, too. There are going to be some excellent films nominated this year, but I’m just not seeing a way around the lack of diversity storyline that’s bound to dominate in the press. The Academy Awards ceremony is of course not exactly known for being the most diverse event in the world, but in recent years they’d actually been doing OK — Precious had a great showing a year ago, with numerous nominations and wins for Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay. Taraji P. Henson and Viola Davis represented in 2009, Forest Whitaker and Jennifer Hudson both won major awards in 2007, and at the Chris Rock-hosted 2005 ceremony I am fairly sure Jamie Foxx won every single statue and flew away in a helicopter, cackling diabolically while Counting Crows were in mid-performance.

But here in 2011, this is just how it is. Surely there will be plenty of debate over why this is the whitest Oscars in recent memory. Are there quality ethnic films and performances being willfully ignored? If there aren’t, well, why aren’t there? Is the consensus opinion over what makes a “good” movie too biased toward whatever white audiences relate to? I don’t know. I’m just saying, be ready to hear a whole lot more about this.

Anyway, the nominees. For Best Picture, we’re looking at 10, just like last year. There are really only 11 candidates with a good shot at these 10 slots: the 10 already selected by the Producers Guild (usually the most accurate precursor for Best Picture), plus critical favorite and dark horse indie Winter’s Bone. There are another few longshots: Clint Eastwood’s Hereafter, Mike Leigh’s Another Year, the oddly controversial Blue Valentine. But I don’t think any of those has much momentum at this stage.

Basically you’ve got five sure things: Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The King’s Speech, and The Social Network (which will win). Each of these has consistently shown up in just about every major precursor. Taking up the remaining slots will be five of the following six: The Kids Are All Right, 127 Hours, The Town, Toy Story 3, True Grit, and Winter’s Bone. Any one of these could find itself left out on nomination day, but my money’s on Winter’s Bone — it didn’t get that all-important PGA nod, and it may simply be too small a film to overcome that. If it does get in, I’d guess the loser would be either 127 Hours (brilliant, but nearly unwatchably so) or The Town (also great, but mostly squeaking by so far thanks to heavy marketing).

Did I mention The Social Network is going to win? You already knew that, right?

On to Best Director. Back when there would be only five Best Picture nominees, they would often be reflected in the Academy’s choices for Best Director. There may be twice as many films nominated per year now, but as I noted before there are really five sure things in 2011. It just so happens that the Directors Guild has already nominated the men who helmed those five sure things for their own awards. You see where I’m going with this?

If any major Oscar category is a done deal, this is it. You’ve got Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech), Christopher Nolan (Inception), and David O. Russell (The Fighter), all of whom will have the privilege of losing to David Fincher (The Social Network). Notably, out of this bunch only Fincher has been nominated before (well, Nolan got a screenplay nod for Memento, but that’s screenwriting and doesn’t matter). Are there any potential spoilers? The Academy does love the brothers Coen, and Danny Boyle, and Mike Leigh, and maybe that Clint Eastwood guy a little bit. But no.

And now, acting! We’ll do the ladies first. I’m actually really intrigued to see who gets nominated for Best Actress, because you have four no doubters and one huge wild card slot. For months now the race has looked like it’s down to the oft-snubbed veteran (Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right) vs. the starlet in her prime (Natalie Portman, Black Swan). And while this is probably true, knowing the Academy I have to believe Bening has the edge. In any event, the two of them are in, as are Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone) and Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole).

So here’s where it gets interesting. The Screen Actors Guild usually has the most sway in this stuff, but they’ve given their fifth spot to Hilary Swank in Conviction. Nobody really loved Conviction, and I don’t even think anyone liked Swank in it. People do, however, like giving Hilary Swank awards, and in fact she has won the Best Actress Oscar twice — defeating Annette Bening both times. So it may be tempting to put both in the race for a third time, when Bening may finally get her win.

However, there’s another candidate for this fifth spot who many critics would say deserves it no question: Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine. She’s been nominated for an Oscar before as well, losing Supporting Actress to Rachel Weisz in 2006, but Williams is said by some to give a classic performance this time around. It’s also worth noting that, while Swank got that SAG nod, Williams was given the nod instead by the Golden Globes, the Broadcast Film Critics Association, and others. I actually do think Williams will get in here, and not just because I’m not a big Hilary Swank fan. But it will be close, as will the final showdown between Bening and Portman.

I should note there are dark horses: Lesley Manville for Another Year, Tilda Swinton for I Am Love, and I guess Halle Berry for…diversity. I don’t think there’s room for them, but maybe Manville could sneak in there if Williams and Swank bring each other down.

Best Actor is much more boring this time around. Jeff Bridges and Colin Firth are still riding the wave of last year’s awards successes, and they’ll be showing up again for True Grit and The King’s Speech, respectively. The difference this time around is it will be Firth riding into a win. James Franco will also be here, for his impressive work in 127 Hours. Why he’s also hosting the Oscars in a year when he’s bound to be nominated is anyone’s guess. Jesse Eisenberg’s nomination is guaranteed, because it’s The Social Network and so of course it is. And then the final spot will go to Robert Duvall for a movie called Get Low — no one saw it, but he’s 80 and you gotta have your old guy.

There is only one other actor who could get in here, and that would be Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine. Gosling’s been nominated once before, but Blue Valentine doesn’t have the level of support required to bump him over legends like Duvall and Bridges. I guess Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter), and Paul Giamatti (Barney’s Version) have distant shots, but we’re talking really, really distant.

But wait, you say, what about Johnny Depp? He’s been nominated for not one but TWO Golden Globes, for Alice in Wonderland and The Tourist! To which I respond, are you fucking stupid? I mean, really.

Best Supporting Actress might be the most open major category. You have six viable candidates for five slots, but any one of them could be the one who gets left out — with the exception of Melissa Leo (The Fighter). Leo is favored to win, though it’s not guaranteed. The other five are Amy Adams (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech), Mila Kunis (Black Swan), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit), and Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom). All have weaknesses: Adams has to deal with being in Leo’s shadow. Carter, in her own way, has to deal with being in both Colin Firth’s and Geoffrey Rush’s shadows. Mila Kunis is very good in Black Swan, but she doesn’t have the capital these other actresses have. Hailee Steinfeld is a revelation, but she’s also very young and may have to deal with a perception of category fraud (she’s clearly the lead in True Grit). Jacki Weaver would seem to be the easy cut — Australian movie no one saw, released earlier in 2010, not a big name actress, no SAG nomination. But it’s not really so clear, as Weaver was nominated by the BFCA and the Golden Globes (who omitted Steinfeld entirely), won this category in the National Board of Review awards, and was named Best Supporting Actress on more critics’ end-of-year lists than anyone (save maybe Leo), including the significant Los Angeles Film Critics Association. The SAG snub may still mean Weaver has the worst odds of the group, but I would not be surprised to see Steinfeld or Kunis lose out.

Last and possibly least in the acting categories is Best Supporting Actor. It’s not a thrilling group in my opinion, but once again we have an area where there’s some question around the fifth slot. Christian Bale has completely dominated this category in the precursors, and no one is in a position to stop him from winning for The Fighter. He’s followed by Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech) in distant second place, but he already has his Oscar anyway. Then we have the scene-stealing Jeremy Renner (The Town), and the somehow-never-before-nominated Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right).

For the fifth spot, we have a situation similar to that with Best Actress: John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone) received a surprise nod from the SAG, where Andrew Garfield (The Social Network) had been expected to show up. Like Michelle Williams, Garfield was named by the BFCA and Golden Globes; like Hilary Swank, Hawkes was ignored by those groups. The main difference is, Hawkes’s performance has received raves across the board, and his movie is well-loved. Hawkes was named the top supporting actor by San Francisco’s film critics, while even the critics groups who liked Sam Rockwell (BFCA) and Juliette Lewis (Boston) in Conviction pretty much ignored Swank. Equally important is that Andrew Garfield is no Michelle Williams. Williams has a history of past nominations and critical adoration, and Garfield’s only just starting out. No doubt he’s fantastic in The Social Network, and could ride its coattails to Oscar night. But Hawkes is a respected veteran who’s never gotten his dues at this level, and I expect him to get in. And then lose to Christian Bale.

Now, let’s do the Screenplay awards. Aaron Sorkin wins Adapted. Will anyone else even be nominated? Do you care? Of course not. There’s also a Best Original Screenplay award, believe it or not, which I guess goes to The King’s Speech guy.

That’s all the big stuff. On January 25th we’ll see if I’m right. And if I am, the next big question to answer: why do I have time to put so much thought into this twaddle?

Anne Hathaway now has a solid advantage over all her competition in the Best Actress category. There are six other contenders at this point, and no matter who gets left out it’s going to piss people off — this is probably the single strongest category in 2008. Meryl is in, the rest are anybody’s guess — Sally Hawkins, though a major hit on most critics’ lists, took a big blow today from the bastards in the SAG. Melissa Leo gets a boost, as does Angelina although I’m still not convinced she can break in over Kristin Scott Thomas.

Best Actor has not changed. Either DiCaprio or Eastwood could squeeze in, but at this point I think Jenkins, Langella, Penn, Pitt, Rourke is starting to look like a safe prediction.

Penelope Cruz is kind of running away with the Supporting Actress category, though Viola Davis is in some ways right there with her. It’s still going to be shocking if Cruz doesn’t win unless there are some upsets in Davis’s favor at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards.

Supporting Actor still belongs to Heath Ledger and regardless of TDK’s status in Best Pic that isn’t changing.

Slumdog v. Button will continue their battle in the Best Director category, where Danny Boyle and David Fincher are the major candidates. In the Screenplay categories, I predict wins for Benjamin Button and Milk.

Full prediction chart below, with five predicted nominees in bold and winners italicized.

First, we have Slumdog Millionaire being named Best Film. In my previous entry I categorized this as a “likely” Best Pic contender; now I’m not only willing to say it’s a lock for a nomination, but I’d call it the frontrunner to win the big award in ’09.

NBR also lists their ten runners-up, in no particular order. First, the non-surprises: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Gran Torino, Milk, WALL-E, The Wrestler. That leaves three movies I’d call surprises (mostly due to what’s been left out): Burn After Reading, Changeling, and Defiance. Burn After Reading is a complete left-field pick, a fun but extremely odd and very slight Coen Brothers effort. Defiance isn’t out yet, but all the early reviews I’ve seen so far have been pretty uniformly disappointing. Changeling is not a huge surprise, especially because the NBR has such a huge Clint Eastwood fetish, but it’s a little jolting to see it here rather than Revolutionary Road, The Reader, Doubt, or Rachel Getting Married. This doesn’t mean those four movies are out of contention for Best Picture, and it doesn’t mean Changeling is suddenly in. But it does confirm to me that four of the five nominees are now very likely to be Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button, Milk, and Frost/Nixon, with the fight for that fifth spot looking like something of a free-for-all (though if the Academy is smart they’ll put in Dark Knight). Could both of Kate Winslet’s highly anticipated films be denied?

NBR’s Acting awards don’t help Winslet’s cause much, either. They did give Best Actor to Clint for Gran Torino, but I’m pretty sure these guys would have given it to Clint if he were in The Love Guru. I guess this does confirm he’s a reasonably likely nominee this year, though I’d still put Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke, and Frank Langella ahead of him. If Clint is in there that leaves a spot for Richard Jenkins, Leonardo DiCaprio, or Brad Pitt, and right now Jenkins has the most buzz for the little-seen The Visitor. So there’s another door potentially slammed on Revolutionary Road.

For Actress, Anne Hathaway gets the call for Rachel Getting Married. This maybe does give her a slight lead in the Oscar crowd, though frankly hers wasn’t even the best performance in that film let alone any other this year. Meryl Streep will inevitably receive her billionth nomination (but probably will not win). Kristin Scott Thomas has been widely expected to get in for I’ve Loved You So Long, but that movie gets no mention from the NBR. Hmm. I’ll still classify her as “likely,” although she probably now falls behind Melissa Leo (who shares the “Spotlight Award” with Richard Jenkins) for her raved about peformance in indie Frozen River. The fifth slot may well go to Angelina Jolie, horrifying a prospect as that is — particularly if that means Sally Hawkins gets dissed for her transcendental role in Happy Go Lucky.

And Kate Winslet? Not impossible, but…well…could be at the back of the line. We will see.

NBR did not give Supporting Actor to Heath Ledger (why so serious, NBR?) but he’s still winning his posthumous Oscar. This one goes to Josh Brolin’s very serious turn in Milk, which vaults him into position as a likely nominee. Philip Seymour Hoffman will probably end up in there too for Doubt, as he’s supposed to be typically brilliant. I think James Franco might get in there for Milk as well, and maybe surprisingly the last spot seems destined to go to Robert Downey, Jr. for Tropic Thunder. I guess I’ll actually have to watch that now. If anyone else fades, Bill Irwin could sneak in there for Rachel. Another dark horse is Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road, but so far that isn’t getting nominated anywhere else so why here?

Supporting Actress goes to Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona. She and Viola Davis in Doubt are the only pretty sure nominees in this year’s most wide open acting category. Who else? Could have Marisa Tomei, Rosemary DeWitt (the superior female performance in Rachel), Sophie Okonedo. Benjamin Button contains a bunch of well-received supporting performances from women, including Taraji P. Henson. This may actually be Kate Winslet’s best shot at getting nominated for her Nazi turn in The Reader, but I’m not 100% she’s being submitted for the Supporting category. If she wants a shot, she should be.

Best Director has been given to David Fincher, and it’s fair to say he probably will get his first much-deserved Oscar nomination this time for Benjamin Button. Hard to believe Danny Boyle isn’t also automatically in there, although he’s listed alongside an Indian co-director for Slumdog (Loveleen Tandan) so I’m not sure if that complicates things. Gus Van Sant and Ron Howard are extremely likely as well, so once again you’re left with that mysterious fifth spot, as in the Best Pic category. The Academy will often take this chance to reward a beloved director whose film is not in Best Picture contention, as they have in recent years with Julian Schnabel, Paul Greengrass, and Mike Leigh. That could mean Leigh stands a shot again this year for Happy Go Lucky, or possibly Thomas McCarthy for The Visitor. Of course, Clint Eastwood could always swoop in and spoil everything, too.

NBR’s Adapted Screenplay award is a tie between Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog and Eric Roth for Button, and they probably will remain the two on top fighting for the Oscar. Best Original Screenplay goes to Nick Schenk for Gran Torino, who now enters a potentially fierce battle with Dustin Lance Black (Milk), Robert Siegel (The Wrestler), Woody Allen and others.

Do I really believe Revolutionary Road is going to be universally shut out from all major categories? No, not yet. But it’s definitely been hurt today, and it’s difficult to see where it’s going to fit in with all these other highly competitive films. One thing we can say after today is our big buzz winners are Gran Torino and Slumdog Millionaire, which as I mentioned now has a very clear path to Oscar immortality.

Here they are:

Picture
Atonement
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Director
P.T. Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
Tim Burton (Sweeney Todd)
Ethan & Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Sean Penn (Into the Wild)
Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell & the Butterfly)

Actor
George Clooney (Michael Clayton)
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)
Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild)
Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)

Actress
Julie Christie (Away From Her)
Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)
Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Laura Linney (The Savages)
Ellen Page (Juno)

Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James…)
Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson’s War)
Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)

Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There)
Ruby Dee (American Gangster)
Catherine Keener (Into the Wild)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)

Original Screenplay
Diablo Cody (Juno)
Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
Tamara Jenkins (The Savages)
Kelly Masterson (Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead)
Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl)

Adapted Screenplay
P.T. Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
Ethan & Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Christopher Hampton (Atonement)
Ronald Harwood (The Diving Bell & the Butterfly)
Sean Penn (Into the Wild)

I probably have no business making guesses in the other various categories, but I’m going to anyway (except for the short film ones, because I don’t even know what the candidates would be):

Foreign Film
Beaufort (Israel)
The Counterfeiters (Austria)
Katyn (Poland)
The Unknown (Italy)
The Year My Parents Went on Vacation (Brazil)

Documentary Feature
Autism: The Musical
For the Bible Tells Me So
Lake of Fire
Sicko
White Light/Black Rain

Animated Film
Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie

Original Score
Clint Eastwood (Grace is Gone)
Jonny Greenwood (There Will Be Blood)
Alberto Iglesias (The Kite Runner)
Dario Marianelli (Atonement)
Howard Shore (Eastern Promises)

Original Song
Enchanted – “That’s How You Know”
Grace is Gone – “Grace is Gone”
Into the Wild – “Guaranteed”
Love in the Time of Cholera – “Despedida”
Once – “Falling Slowly”

Editing
The Bourne Ultimatum
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood

Art Direction
Across the Universe
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Hairspray
Sweeney Todd

Cinematography
The Assassination of Jesse James…
Atonement
The Diving Bell & the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Costume Design
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Enchanted
La Vie en Rose
Sweeney Todd

Makeup
300
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Sweeney Todd

Sound Editing
The Bourne Ultimatum
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Spider-Man 3
Sweeney Todd
Transformers

Sound Mixing
300
The Bourne Ultimatum
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
Transformers

Visual Effects
300
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Transformers

Best Actor might be the toughest category to predict this year. Daniel Day-Lewis and George Clooney are looking like sure things at this point, and the race might end up neck and neck between those two. Right now DDL has the momentum. Emile Hirsch has rocketed into the top tier after Into the Wild‘s huge showing at the SAGs, and more people than I expected are remembering Viggo Mortensen’s amazing performance in Eastern Promises. Despite the SAG’s snub of Johnny Depp, his reviews and popularity lead me to believe he’s still more likely to receive an Oscar nod than Ryan Gosling. Denzel and James McAvoy are hanging in there, but the SAG definitely hurt their chances. In any case, I’m very certain the five nominees will come from that pool of eight.

For Best Actress, Julie Christie and Marion Cotillard are the two definites, with Christie currently leading for a movie nobody saw (man, no one is going to watch the Oscars this year, are they). Ellen Page is a good bet as well for her raved-about performance in the indie comedy Juno. Angelina Jolie is a level down, but she’s Angelina Jolie and she’s in the mix for the Globes and SAGs, so expect the Academy to select her, too. That leaves only one tough call in this category — Amy Adams, Cate Blanchett, or Keira Knightley in the fifth spot? It’s really anyone’s guess right now, but Blanchett got the SAG’s vote and so that’s what I’m going with for now.

The Supporting Actor category has been set for a while now — Javier Bardem’s terrifying turn as killer Anton Chigurh in No Country for Old Men is the safest bet in this entire race. It is extremely likely he wins, and there is no chance he does not get nominated whatsoever. Casey Affleck has shown up on pretty much everybody’s list for his role in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, so he’s in. Same for Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton. Hal Holbrook, while not an absolute certainty, is very likely to take the aged veteran spot in this crowd. The fifth spot seemed to be going to Philip Seymour Hoffman, who gave three superb performances this year, but lately there’s a big push to get Tommy Lee Jones in there for No Country as his lead in In the Valley of Elah has lost its buzz. It’ll be one of those two.

Supporting Actress is the weakest category this year. Amy Ryan is the most popular pick to win, and Cate Blanchett looks poised to have a two-nom year (supporting for I’m Not There, lead for Elizabeth: The Golden Age). Tilda Swinton has made about every precursor to date, and Ruby Dee is looking like the Hal Holbrook of this category. Fifth spot will be either young Saoirse Ronan or Catherine Keener, and I’m saying Keener right now following the SAG’s Atonement dis.

The Best Director Oscar will no doubt go to Joel and Ethan Coen, and Joe Wright’s work on Atonement has been roundly praised. The Academy has never been warm to Tim Burton, but many are calling Sweeney Todd his best work and I’m not sure that can be ignored. For stupid reasons The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (one of the most well reviewed films of the year) is not eligible in the Foreign film category, but director Julian Schnabel will probably get recognition here. Fifth spot is a tough one — Paul Thomas Anderson for his challenging epic There Will Be Blood? Sidney Lumet for adding another masterpiece to his unbelievably long and impressive resume? Sean Penn because the Academy (and SAG) love Sean Penn? Right now I’m saying Ridley Scott for the fantastic American Gangster, but don’t hold me to it.

And finally, Best Picture. No Country for Old Men is the most well reviewed movie of 2007 and will be nominated. Atonement is the most Academy-friendly film, and the reviews are good enough to assure it a spot. American Gangster and Into the Wild have the most momentum right now, and I don’t believe either will be left out. This is really looking like the big four at the moment – but it could all change tomorrow. Seriously, there’s a huge amount of unpredictability for Best Pic this year. It seems like Juno will probably get a nomination, but the same could be said for Michael Clayton and Sweeney Todd and There Will Be Blood and what’s this about 3:10 to Yuma suddenly making a comeback??? Then we’ve got Charlie Wilson’s War, Diving Bell, Kite Runner, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead, The Savages, Eastern Promises, The Great Debaters, Hairspray… you can’t rule any of these out yet. Okay, maybe Hairspray. I hope. In any case, this is what makes the whole thing fun. Who will win? No Country for Old Men has everything going for it, so I’ll stick with it for now.

Full prediction chart after the break.

Cells shaded green represent names and titles that are trending up, and red means trending down. Light blue cells show new names and titles which had not made my original list. The top five candidates in each category are bolded, representing what I believe the Oscar nominees would be if announced today.

Many supposed contenders were omitted from the Board’s “Top Ten Films” list (American Gangster being the biggest), while some movies with very little awards buzz made the cut (The Bourne Ultimatum, The Bucket List). Some potential nominees had their Oscar hopes raised significantly: by taking “Best Actor,” George Clooney is suddenly very much in the running for what might be the toughest category to pick. Casey Affleck and Julie Christie have cemented their status as nominees in supporting categories (for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and Away From Her, respectively). Perhaps the biggest winner is Sweeney Todd — Tim Burton upset the competition to win “Best Director,” while the musical itself was named one of the year’s best.

Some old favorites remain favorites — by taking “Best Film,” No Country for Old Men officially has zero chance of being snubbed for an Oscar nom (despite the teenager sitting behind me in the theater who left complaining it was “the most pointless movie since I Heart Huckabees”). Atonement, which may be more traditionally Oscar-friendly, continues to look strong. It’s clear that this year Juno is the little indie that could, and if the Academy wishes it to be this year’s Little Miss Sunshine, then so it shall be.

Below the cut I’ve charted my predictions, and how they’ve shifted since November.

Cells shaded green represent names and titles that are trending up, and red means trending down. Light blue cells show new names and titles which had not made my original list. Once again, the top five candidates in each category are bolded, representing what I believe the Oscar nominees would be if announced today.

Actually, this is looking like one of the most competitive races in a long time. The closest we have to a “sure winner” in any category would be Atonement for Best Picture, and that’s based almost entirely on expectations. If that movie turns out to be good but not great, suddenly everything’s wide open.

So, based on all that I’ve seen and read so far, I’ve taken a stab at ranking the potential nominees in all major acting categories, plus Best Pic and Director. These aren’t rankings based on personal opinion — I don’t think I’ve seen half of these films yet — but ranked by the likelihood of their receiving Oscar nominations. There are ten selections per category, and if the real nominees were announced today I believe they’d consist of the first five (bolded) from each list. There’s plenty of time for all this to change, of course, which is what makes it fun (for me, anyway).

Also, I’m not guessing winners at this point.

Actor
Denzel Washington (American Gangster)
Daniel Day Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah)
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)
Frank Langella (Starting Out in the Evening)
George Clooney (Michael Clayton)
Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl)
Tom Hanks (Charlie Wilson’s War)
James McAvoy (Atonement)
Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)

Actress
Ellen Page (Juno)
Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
Amy Adams (Enchanted)
Julie Christie (Away From Her)
Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Laura Linney (The Savages)
Keira Knightley (Atonement)
Keri Russell (Waitress)
Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age)
Jodie Foster (The Brave One)

Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson’s War)
Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James)
Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)
Russell Crowe (American Gangster)
Ben Foster (3:10 to Yuma)
Ethan Hawke (Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead)
Philip Bosco (The Savages)
Armin Mueller-Stahl (Eastern Promises)

Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There)
Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
Ruby Dee (American Gangster)
Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)
Marisa Tomei (Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead)
Vanessa Redgrave (Atonement)
Romola Garai (Atonement)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (Margot at the Wedding)
Catherine Keener (Into the Wild)

Director
Ethan Coen & Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Joe Wright (Atonement)
Sidney Lumet (Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead)
Ridley Scott (American Gangster)
Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
Sean Penn (Into the Wild)
Mike Nichols (Charlie Wilson’s War)
David Cronenberg (Eastern Promises)
Tim Burton (Sweeney Todd)
Ang Lee (Lust, Caution)

Best Picture
No Country for Old Men
Atonement
American Gangster
Juno
Charlie Wilson’s War
There Will Be Blood
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
Sweeney Todd
Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead