Rich Bradley: The Blog

Well, most of the major non-Oscar nominations are out, including today’s SAG press release. Best Picture is looking more and more like a duel between Slumdog and Benjamin Button, and I have a feeling it’s going to be that way down to the end. The other three spots are likely to be filled by Milk and two of Frost/Nixon, The Dark Knight, and Revolutionary Road. Knight looks to be struggling a bit, which is ridiculous, but I still have to believe it edges in.

Anne Hathaway now has a solid advantage over all her competition in the Best Actress category. There are six other contenders at this point, and no matter who gets left out it’s going to piss people off — this is probably the single strongest category in 2008. Meryl is in, the rest are anybody’s guess — Sally Hawkins, though a major hit on most critics’ lists, took a big blow today from the bastards in the SAG. Melissa Leo gets a boost, as does Angelina although I’m still not convinced she can break in over Kristin Scott Thomas.

Best Actor has not changed. Either DiCaprio or Eastwood could squeeze in, but at this point I think Jenkins, Langella, Penn, Pitt, Rourke is starting to look like a safe prediction.

Penelope Cruz is kind of running away with the Supporting Actress category, though Viola Davis is in some ways right there with her. It’s still going to be shocking if Cruz doesn’t win unless there are some upsets in Davis’s favor at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards.

Supporting Actor still belongs to Heath Ledger and regardless of TDK’s status in Best Pic that isn’t changing.

Slumdog v. Button will continue their battle in the Best Director category, where Danny Boyle and David Fincher are the major candidates. In the Screenplay categories, I predict wins for Benjamin Button and Milk.

Full prediction chart below, with five predicted nominees in bold and winners italicized.

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The first “real” awards of the movie season come from the National Board of Review, notorious for throwing a few curveballs at you while tending to solidify the status of several major Oscar contenders. You can’t be too sure about some of them — as I recall they gave “Best Director” to Tim Burton last year, and he did not end up receiving an Oscar nomination — but let’s take a look anyway and see if we can discern some of the major implications.

First, we have Slumdog Millionaire being named Best Film. In my previous entry I categorized this as a “likely” Best Pic contender; now I’m not only willing to say it’s a lock for a nomination, but I’d call it the frontrunner to win the big award in ‘09.

NBR also lists their ten runners-up, in no particular order. First, the non-surprises: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Gran Torino, Milk, WALL-E, The Wrestler. That leaves three movies I’d call surprises (mostly due to what’s been left out): Burn After Reading, Changeling, and Defiance. Burn After Reading is a complete left-field pick, a fun but extremely odd and very slight Coen Brothers effort. Defiance isn’t out yet, but all the early reviews I’ve seen so far have been pretty uniformly disappointing. Changeling is not a huge surprise, especially because the NBR has such a huge Clint Eastwood fetish, but it’s a little jolting to see it here rather than Revolutionary Road, The Reader, Doubt, or Rachel Getting Married. This doesn’t mean those four movies are out of contention for Best Picture, and it doesn’t mean Changeling is suddenly in. But it does confirm to me that four of the five nominees are now very likely to be Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button, Milk, and Frost/Nixon, with the fight for that fifth spot looking like something of a free-for-all (though if the Academy is smart they’ll put in Dark Knight). Could both of Kate Winslet’s highly anticipated films be denied?

NBR’s Acting awards don’t help Winslet’s cause much, either. They did give Best Actor to Clint for Gran Torino, but I’m pretty sure these guys would have given it to Clint if he were in The Love Guru. I guess this does confirm he’s a reasonably likely nominee this year, though I’d still put Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke, and Frank Langella ahead of him. If Clint is in there that leaves a spot for Richard Jenkins, Leonardo DiCaprio, or Brad Pitt, and right now Jenkins has the most buzz for the little-seen The Visitor. So there’s another door potentially slammed on Revolutionary Road.

For Actress, Anne Hathaway gets the call for Rachel Getting Married. This maybe does give her a slight lead in the Oscar crowd, though frankly hers wasn’t even the best performance in that film let alone any other this year. Meryl Streep will inevitably receive her billionth nomination (but probably will not win). Kristin Scott Thomas has been widely expected to get in for I’ve Loved You So Long, but that movie gets no mention from the NBR. Hmm. I’ll still classify her as “likely,” although she probably now falls behind Melissa Leo (who shares the “Spotlight Award” with Richard Jenkins) for her raved about peformance in indie Frozen River. The fifth slot may well go to Angelina Jolie, horrifying a prospect as that is — particularly if that means Sally Hawkins gets dissed for her transcendental role in Happy Go Lucky.

And Kate Winslet? Not impossible, but…well…could be at the back of the line. We will see.

NBR did not give Supporting Actor to Heath Ledger (why so serious, NBR?) but he’s still winning his posthumous Oscar. This one goes to Josh Brolin’s very serious turn in Milk, which vaults him into position as a likely nominee. Philip Seymour Hoffman will probably end up in there too for Doubt, as he’s supposed to be typically brilliant. I think James Franco might get in there for Milk as well, and maybe surprisingly the last spot seems destined to go to Robert Downey, Jr. for Tropic Thunder. I guess I’ll actually have to watch that now. If anyone else fades, Bill Irwin could sneak in there for Rachel. Another dark horse is Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road, but so far that isn’t getting nominated anywhere else so why here?

Supporting Actress goes to Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona. She and Viola Davis in Doubt are the only pretty sure nominees in this year’s most wide open acting category. Who else? Could have Marisa Tomei, Rosemary DeWitt (the superior female performance in Rachel), Sophie Okonedo. Benjamin Button contains a bunch of well-received supporting performances from women, including Taraji P. Henson. This may actually be Kate Winslet’s best shot at getting nominated for her Nazi turn in The Reader, but I’m not 100% she’s being submitted for the Supporting category. If she wants a shot, she should be.

Best Director has been given to David Fincher, and it’s fair to say he probably will get his first much-deserved Oscar nomination this time for Benjamin Button. Hard to believe Danny Boyle isn’t also automatically in there, although he’s listed alongside an Indian co-director for Slumdog (Loveleen Tandan) so I’m not sure if that complicates things. Gus Van Sant and Ron Howard are extremely likely as well, so once again you’re left with that mysterious fifth spot, as in the Best Pic category. The Academy will often take this chance to reward a beloved director whose film is not in Best Picture contention, as they have in recent years with Julian Schnabel, Paul Greengrass, and Mike Leigh. That could mean Leigh stands a shot again this year for Happy Go Lucky, or possibly Thomas McCarthy for The Visitor. Of course, Clint Eastwood could always swoop in and spoil everything, too.

NBR’s Adapted Screenplay award is a tie between Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog and Eric Roth for Button, and they probably will remain the two on top fighting for the Oscar. Best Original Screenplay goes to Nick Schenk for Gran Torino, who now enters a potentially fierce battle with Dustin Lance Black (Milk), Robert Siegel (The Wrestler), Woody Allen and others.

Do I really believe Revolutionary Road is going to be universally shut out from all major categories? No, not yet. But it’s definitely been hurt today, and it’s difficult to see where it’s going to fit in with all these other highly competitive films. One thing we can say after today is our big buzz winners are Gran Torino and Slumdog Millionaire, which as I mentioned now has a very clear path to Oscar immortality.

The first stab — as in most years, I have yet to see the vast majority of these films at this point. But I’m still usually pretty good, considering. Potential nominees are split into “lock” (guaranteed nom), “likely” (would be considered a surprise if omitted), “possible” (definite contender but nothing is certain), and “unsure” (not enough information on the film at this time to say). Have at it.

The 2007 movie year has officially closed for business with a surprisingly decent Academy Awards ceremony. Kyla and I have put together our individual lists of the best films and performances of ‘07, same as we did last year.

Here they are:

Whether the Oscars happen or not, nominations will be announced in five days. That means it’s time to end the guessing and place my final bets. Here we go (expected winners in bold):

Picture
Atonement
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Director
P.T. Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
Tim Burton (Sweeney Todd)
Ethan & Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Sean Penn (Into the Wild)
Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell & the Butterfly)

Actor
George Clooney (Michael Clayton)
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)
Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild)
Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)

Actress
Julie Christie (Away From Her)
Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)
Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Laura Linney (The Savages)
Ellen Page (Juno)

Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James…)
Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson’s War)
Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)

Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There)
Ruby Dee (American Gangster)
Catherine Keener (Into the Wild)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)

Original Screenplay
Diablo Cody (Juno)
Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
Tamara Jenkins (The Savages)
Kelly Masterson (Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead)
Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl)

Adapted Screenplay
P.T. Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
Ethan & Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Christopher Hampton (Atonement)
Ronald Harwood (The Diving Bell & the Butterfly)
Sean Penn (Into the Wild)

I probably have no business making guesses in the other various categories, but I’m going to anyway (except for the short film ones, because I don’t even know what the candidates would be): (more…)

A lot of precursor awards announced in the last week or two — Golden Globe and SAG noms being the big ones. A few significant updates to what’s looking like one of the most potentially interesting Oscar seasons in a while.

Best Actor might be the toughest category to predict this year. Daniel Day-Lewis and George Clooney are looking like sure things at this point, and the race might end up neck and neck between those two. Right now DDL has the momentum. Emile Hirsch has rocketed into the top tier after Into the Wild’s huge showing at the SAGs, and more people than I expected are remembering Viggo Mortensen’s amazing performance in Eastern Promises. Despite the SAG’s snub of Johnny Depp, his reviews and popularity lead me to believe he’s still more likely to receive an Oscar nod than Ryan Gosling. Denzel and James McAvoy are hanging in there, but the SAG definitely hurt their chances. In any case, I’m very certain the five nominees will come from that pool of eight.

For Best Actress, Julie Christie and Marion Cotillard are the two definites, with Christie currently leading for a movie nobody saw (man, no one is going to watch the Oscars this year, are they). Ellen Page is a good bet as well for her raved-about performance in the indie comedy Juno. Angelina Jolie is a level down, but she’s Angelina Jolie and she’s in the mix for the Globes and SAGs, so expect the Academy to select her, too. That leaves only one tough call in this category — Amy Adams, Cate Blanchett, or Keira Knightley in the fifth spot? It’s really anyone’s guess right now, but Blanchett got the SAG’s vote and so that’s what I’m going with for now.

The Supporting Actor category has been set for a while now — Javier Bardem’s terrifying turn as killer Anton Chigurh in No Country for Old Men is the safest bet in this entire race. It is extremely likely he wins, and there is no chance he does not get nominated whatsoever. Casey Affleck has shown up on pretty much everybody’s list for his role in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, so he’s in. Same for Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton. Hal Holbrook, while not an absolute certainty, is very likely to take the aged veteran spot in this crowd. The fifth spot seemed to be going to Philip Seymour Hoffman, who gave three superb performances this year, but lately there’s a big push to get Tommy Lee Jones in there for No Country as his lead in In the Valley of Elah has lost its buzz. It’ll be one of those two.

Supporting Actress is the weakest category this year. Amy Ryan is the most popular pick to win, and Cate Blanchett looks poised to have a two-nom year (supporting for I’m Not There, lead for Elizabeth: The Golden Age). Tilda Swinton has made about every precursor to date, and Ruby Dee is looking like the Hal Holbrook of this category. Fifth spot will be either young Saoirse Ronan or Catherine Keener, and I’m saying Keener right now following the SAG’s Atonement dis.

The Best Director Oscar will no doubt go to Joel and Ethan Coen, and Joe Wright’s work on Atonement has been roundly praised. The Academy has never been warm to Tim Burton, but many are calling Sweeney Todd his best work and I’m not sure that can be ignored. For stupid reasons The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (one of the most well reviewed films of the year) is not eligible in the Foreign film category, but director Julian Schnabel will probably get recognition here. Fifth spot is a tough one — Paul Thomas Anderson for his challenging epic There Will Be Blood? Sidney Lumet for adding another masterpiece to his unbelievably long and impressive resume? Sean Penn because the Academy (and SAG) love Sean Penn? Right now I’m saying Ridley Scott for the fantastic American Gangster, but don’t hold me to it.

And finally, Best Picture. No Country for Old Men is the most well reviewed movie of 2007 and will be nominated. Atonement is the most Academy-friendly film, and the reviews are good enough to assure it a spot. American Gangster and Into the Wild have the most momentum right now, and I don’t believe either will be left out. This is really looking like the big four at the moment – but it could all change tomorrow. Seriously, there’s a huge amount of unpredictability for Best Pic this year. It seems like Juno will probably get a nomination, but the same could be said for Michael Clayton and Sweeney Todd and There Will Be Blood and what’s this about 3:10 to Yuma suddenly making a comeback??? Then we’ve got Charlie Wilson’s War, Diving Bell, Kite Runner, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead, The Savages, Eastern Promises, The Great Debaters, Hairspray… you can’t rule any of these out yet. Okay, maybe Hairspray. I hope. In any case, this is what makes the whole thing fun. Who will win? No Country for Old Men has everything going for it, so I’ll stick with it for now.

Full prediction chart after the break. (more…)

The first 2007 movie awards that matter were announced yesterday, by the National Board of Review. These are the first real hints at what some of the Oscar nominees might look like, and there were some pretty huge surprises.

Many supposed contenders were omitted from the Board’s “Top Ten Films” list (American Gangster being the biggest), while some movies with very little awards buzz made the cut (The Bourne Ultimatum, The Bucket List). Some potential nominees had their Oscar hopes raised significantly: by taking “Best Actor,” George Clooney is suddenly very much in the running for what might be the toughest category to pick. Casey Affleck and Julie Christie have cemented their status as nominees in supporting categories (for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and Away From Her, respectively). Perhaps the biggest winner is Sweeney Todd — Tim Burton upset the competition to win “Best Director,” while the musical itself was named one of the year’s best.

Some old favorites remain favorites — by taking “Best Film,” No Country for Old Men officially has zero chance of being snubbed for an Oscar nom (despite the teenager sitting behind me in the theater who left complaining it was “the most pointless movie since I Heart Huckabees”). Atonement, which may be more traditionally Oscar-friendly, continues to look strong. It’s clear that this year Juno is the little indie that could, and if the Academy wishes it to be this year’s Little Miss Sunshine, then so it shall be.

Below the cut I’ve charted my predictions, and how they’ve shifted since November. (more…)

December is almost upon us. So how’s that Oscar race shaping up?

Actually, this is looking like one of the most competitive races in a long time. The closest we have to a “sure winner” in any category would be Atonement for Best Picture, and that’s based almost entirely on expectations. If that movie turns out to be good but not great, suddenly everything’s wide open.

So, based on all that I’ve seen and read so far, I’ve taken a stab at ranking the potential nominees in all major acting categories, plus Best Pic and Director. These aren’t rankings based on personal opinion — I don’t think I’ve seen half of these films yet — but ranked by the likelihood of their receiving Oscar nominations. There are ten selections per category, and if the real nominees were announced today I believe they’d consist of the first five (bolded) from each list. There’s plenty of time for all this to change, of course, which is what makes it fun (for me, anyway).

Also, I’m not guessing winners at this point. (more…)

We all know about the big blockbusters coming up this year – new Pirates, Spider-Man, Harry Potter, and the first installment of the His Dark Materials adaptations, The Golden Compass. But what movies are we going to be talking about at the end of the year? What will get the elusive “awards buzz?” There’s no way for me to know that, obviously, but here’s a big list of probable candidates. A few will undoubtedly be great, and many will just as certainly be disappointing, but odds are a good chunk of next year’s Oscar gold is buried somewhere in this list. It’s organized by the films’ supposed release months, many of which are likely to change. In case it’s unclear, “d” is the director(s), “s” the starring actors, “sp” the screenplay author(s), and “imdb” the plot summary pulled from the Internet Movie Database. Where you see “comments,” that’s me.

Evening
d: Lajos Koltai
s: Claire Danes, Patrick Wilson, Meryl Streep
sp: Michael Cunningham (The Hours [novel])
imdb: “A dying woman reflects on the time in her youth when she met the love of her life as her two daughters wrestle with their mother’s impending death and their own personal issues.”
release date: June

A Mighty Heart
d: Michael Winterbottom (24 Hour Party People, Tristram Shandy)
s: Angelina Jolie, Archie Panjabi, Irfan Khan
sp: Michael Winterbottom, Laurence Coriat (Wonderland)
imdb: “Mariane Pearl (Jolie) embarks on a frantic search to locate her journalist husband, Daniel, when he goes missing in Pakistan.”
release date: June
comments: A lot of people are angry about this movie, but they were about United 93 as well, and that one turned out to be pretty damn good. We’ll see.

An American Crime
d: Tommy O’Haver (Billy’s Hollywood Screen Kiss, Get Over It, Ella Enchanted)
s: Ellen Page, Catherine Keener, Hayley McFarland
sp: Tommy O’Haver, Irene Turner
imdb: “The true story of suburban housewife Gertrude Baniszewski, who kept a teenage girl locked in the basement of her Indiana home during the 1960s.”
release date: August
comments: Dark, but could this be the role that gets Catherine Keener her Oscar?

Atonement
d: Joe Wright (Pride & Prejudice)
s: Keira Knightley, James McAvoy, Romola Garai
sp: Christopher Hampton (The Quiet American)
imdb: “13 year old Briony wrongly accuses Robbie of a terrible crime but the only person who doesn’t believe her is her older sister Cecilia and now their lives shall change forever. Based on the novel by Ian McEwan.”
release date: August

Silk
d: François Girard
s: Keira Knightley, Michael Pitt, Kôji Yakusho
sp: François Girard, Michael Golding
imdb: “The story of a married silkworm merchant-turned-smuggler in 19th century France traveling to Japan for his town’s supply of silkworms after a disease wipes out their African supply. During his stay in Japan, he becomes obsessed with the concubine of a local baron.”
release date: August

The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
d: Andrew Dominik
s: Brad Pitt, Zooey Deschanel, Casey Affleck
sp: Andrew Dominik
imdb: “Robert Ford joins Jesse James’s gang, only to become resentful of the legendary outlaw and hatch a plan to kill the fastest gun in the West.”
release date: September

The Bucket List
d: Rob Reiner (This is Spinal Tap, Stand by Me, The Princess Bride)
s: Jack Nicholson, Morgan Freeman, Sean Hayes
sp: Justin Zackham
imdb: “Two terminally ill men escape from a cancer ward and head off on a road trip with a wish list of to-dos before they die.”
release date: September
comments: At least worth the novelty of a bald Jack Nicholson.

Eastern Promises
d: David Cronenberg (Videodrome, The Fly, A History of Violence)
s: Viggo Mortensen, Naomi Watts, Vincent Cassel
sp: Steven Knight (Dirty Pretty Things, Amazing Grace)
imdb: “A mysterious and ruthless man is tied to one of London’s most notorious organized crime families. His carefully maintained existence is jarred when he crosses paths with an innocent midwife trying to right a wrong.”
release date: September

I’m Not There
d: Todd Haynes (Velvet Goldmine, Far From Heaven)
s: Christian Bale, Cate Blanchett, Richard Gere
sp: Todd Haynes, Oren Moverman (Married Life)
imdb: “Ruminations on the life of Bob Dylan, where seven characters embody a different aspect of the musician’s life and work.”
release date: September
comments: I don’t really know what it’s going to take for me to buy Cate Blanchett as Bob Dylan, but there’s definitely buzz here.

In the Valley of Elah
d: Paul Haggis (Crash)
s: Tommy Lee Jones, Charlize Theron, Jonathan Tucker
sp: Paul Haggis
imdb: “A career officer (Jones) investigates the disappearance of his son (Tucker), an exemplary soldier who went AWOL after his recent return from Iraq.”
release date: September
comments: There’s really no buzz about this yet, but the Paul Haggis machine has come out of nowhere before.

Michael Clayton
d: Tony Gilroy (directorial debut)
s: George Clooney, Tom Wilkinson, Tilda Swinton
sp: Tony Gilroy (The Devil’s Advocate, Proof of Life, The Bourne Identity)
imdb: “A New York attorney learns that after 15 years of cleaning up his high profile clients problems, they can come back to haunt you, in what will be the last and worst days of his career.”
release date: September
comments: Tom Wilkinson has deserved an Oscar for a while now, and there’s a definite possibility for one here.

No Country for Old Men
d: Ethan Coen & Joel Coen (Fargo, The Big Lebowski, O Brother Where Art Thou)
s: Josh Brolin, Tommy Lee Jones, Woody Harrelson
sp: Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
imdb: “Violence and mayhem ensue after a hunter stumbles upon some dead bodies, a stash of heroin and more than $2 million in cash near the Rio Grande.”
release date: September
comments: This could be the Coen brothers’ much needed comeback film.

3:10 to Yuma
d: James Mangold (Girl Interrupted, Identity, Walk the Line)
s: Christian Bale, Russell Crowe, Peter Fonda
sp: Stuart Beattie (Pirates of the Caribbean, Collateral)
imdb: “A small-time rancher agrees to hold a captured outlaw who’s awaiting a train to go to court in Yuma. A battle of wills ensues as the outlaw tries to psych out the rancher.”
release date: October
comments: The idea of Russell Crowe trying to psych out Christian Bale for the duration of this movie is pretty exciting.

Cassandra’s Dream
d: Woody Allen (Annie Hall, Manhattan, Match Point)
s: Ewan McGregor, Colin Farrell, Hayley Atwell
sp: Woody Allen
imdb: “The story of two Cockney brothers (Farrell and McGregor) in south London and their relationship with a young woman (Atwell) who lands in London on her search for fortune.”
release date: October
comments: Can Woody repeat the success of Match Point in another grim, English drama? Could be, but Colin Farrell reading Allen’s unique dialogue could be difficult to buy.

The Golden Age
d: Shekhar Kapur (Elizabeth, The Four Feathers)
s: Cate Blanchett, Clive Owen, Geoffrey Rush
sp: Michael Hirst (Elizabeth), William Nicholson (Gladiator)
imdb: “An exploration of the relationship between Elizabeth I (Blanchett) and the adventurer Sir Walter Raleigh (Owen).”
release date: October
comments: Sequel to Elizabeth, which was a great movie…but did we really need a sequel?

Margot at the Wedding
d: Noah Baumbach (The Squid and the Whale)
s: Nicole Kidman, Jack Black, Jennifer Jason Leigh
sp: Noah Baumbach
imdb: “A drama/comedy set over a single weekend, where a mother takes her son on a visit to his aunt’s home.”
release date: October
comments: Will probably be too weird for the Academy, but Baumbach has so much promise.

My Blueberry Nights
d: Kar Wai Wong (2046)
s: Norah Jones, Jude Law, David Strathairn
sp: Lawrence Block, Kar Wai Wong
imdb: “A young woman (Jones) takes a soul-searching journey across America to resolve her questions about love while encountering a series of offbeat characters along the way.”
release date: October

The Other Boleyn Girl
d: Justin Chadwick (Bleak House)
s: Natalie Portman, Scarlett Johansson, Eric Bana
sp: Peter Morgan (The Last King of Scotland, The Queen)
imdb: “Two sisters contend for the affection of King Henry VIII.”
release date: October
comments: Portman and Johansson are the stars, but the interesting part should be the usually reserved Bana as Henry VIII.

Things We Lost in the Fire
d: Susanne Bier (After the Wedding)
s: Halle Berry, Benicio Del Toro, David Duchovny
sp: Alan Loeb
imdb: “A recent widow invites her husband’s troubled best friend to live with her and her two children. As he gradually turns his life around, he helps the family cope and confront their loss.”
release date: October

American Gangster
d: Ridley Scott (Alien, Blade Runner, Gladiator)
s: Denzel Washington, Russell Crowe, Cuba Gooding Jr.
sp: Steven Zaillian (Schindler’s List, Clear and Present Danger, Gangs of New York)
imdb: “A drug lord smuggles heroin into Harlem during the 1970s by hiding the stash inside the coffins of American soldiers returning from Vietnam.”
release date: November
comments: An early frontrunner for big awards just because of the names attached, but that didn’t help All the King’s Men any last year.

The Kite Runner
d: Marc Forster (Monster’s Ball, Finding Neverland, Stranger Than Fiction)
s: Shaun Toub, Khalid Abdalla, Mason Hsieh
sp: David Benioff (25^th Hour, Troy, Stay)
imdb: “After spending years in California, Amir returns to his homeland in Afghanistan to help his old friend Hassan, whose son is in trouble.”
release date: November

Lions for Lambs
d: Robert Redford (Ordinary People, A River Runs Through It, Quiz Show)
s: Tom Cruise, Meryl Streep, Robert Redford
sp: Matthew Michael Carnahan
imdb: “Injuries sustained by two Army ranger behind enemy lines in Afghanistan set off a sequence of events involving a congressman (Cruise), a journalist (Streep) and a professor (Redford).”
release date: November

Love in the Time of Cholera
d: Mike Newell (Four Weddings and a Funeral, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire)
s: Benjamin Bratt, Javier Bardem, Giovanna Mezzogiorno
sp: Ronald Harwood (The Pianist)
imdb: “A love triangle set in turn-of-the-century South America, where two lovers wait out careers, marriages, affairs and deaths until they can reunite.”
release date: November
comments: A lot of early buzz for Bardem.

Married Life
d: Ira Sachs
s: Pierce Brosnan, Chris Cooper, Patricia Clarkson
sp: Oren Moverman (I’m Not There), Ira Sachs
imdb: “A 1940s-set drama where an adulterous man plots his wife’s death instead of putting her through the humiliation of a divorce.”
release date: November
comments: Haven’t heard much about this one, but Cooper and Clarkson are two of the best film actors around right now and the two of them together should be something to see.

Rendition
d: Gavin Hood (Tsotsi)
s: Reese Witherspoon, Jake Gyllenhaal, Meryl Streep
sp: Kelley Sane
imdb: “A CIA analyst questions his assignment after witnessing an unorthodox interrogation at a secret detention facility outside the US.”
release date: November

Reservation Road
d: Terry George (Hotel Rwanda)
s: Joaquin Phoenix, Mark Ruffalo, Jennifer Connelly
sp: Terry George, John Burnham Schwartz (also wrote the novel)
imdb: “Two families becomes intertwined when the father from one kills the son of the other in a hit-and-run.”
release date: November
comments: A lot of people already think this is Phoenix’s first Oscar win right here. As for Jennifer Connelly, though, I’m thinking she should maybe pick some lighter fare once in a while? Maybe?

Savage Grace
d: Tom Kalin
s: Julianne Moore, Stephen Dillane, Eddie Redmayne
sp: Howard A. Rodman
imdb: “Julianne Moore stars in this dramatization of the shocking Barbara Daly Baekeland murder case, which happened in a posh London flat on Friday 17 November 1972. The bloody crime caused a stir on both sides of the Atlantic and remains one of the most memorable American Tragedies…”
release date: November

There Will Be Blood
d: Paul Thomas Anderson (Boogie Nights, Magnolia, Punch-Drunk Love)
s: Daniel Day-Lewis, Paul Dano, Kevin J. O’Connor
sp: John Logan (Gladiator, The Last Samurai, The Aviator)
imdb: “A story about family, greed, religion, and oil, centered around a turn-of-the-century Texas prospector (Daniel Day-Lewis) in the early days of the business.”
release date: November

Charlie Wilson’s War
d: Mike Nichols (The Graduate, Silkwood, Closer)
s: Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts, Philip Seymour Hoffman
sp: Aaron Sorkin (A Few Good Men, The West Wing, Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip)
imdb: “A drama based on a Texas congressman Charlie Wilson’s covert dealings in Afghanistan, where his efforts to assist rebels in their war with the Soviets have some unforeseen and long-reaching effects.”
release date: December
comments: Clearly, this is the most Oscar-friendly film of 2007 on paper. Sorkin is the wild card who could make or break it.

Leatherheads
d: George Clooney (Good Night and Good Luck)
s: George Clooney, John Krasinski, Renée Zellweger
sp: George Clooney, Steven Soderbergh
imdb: “A romantic comedy set in the world of 1920s football, where the owner (Clooney) of a professional team drafts a straight-laced college sensation (Krasinski), only to watch his new coach fall for his fiancée (Zellweger).”
release date: December

Sweeney Todd
d: Tim Burton (Beetlejuice, Batman, Ed Wood)
s: Johnny Depp, Helena Bonham Carter, Alan Rickman
sp: John Logan (Gladiator, The Last Samurai, The Aviator)
imdb: “Based on the hit Broadway musical which tells the infamous story of Benjamin Barker, a.k.a Sweeney Todd, who sets up a barber shop down in London which is the basis for a sinister partnership with his fellow tenant, Mrs. Lovett.”
release date: December
comments: This could be amazing and it could just as easily be horrible, but you have to believe it will at least be fun. Sacha Baron Cohen’s in it for Chrissake.

Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
d: Sidney Lumet (Dog Day Afternoon, Network, The Verdict)
s: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Ethan Hawke, Albert Finney
sp: Kelly Masterson
imdb: “When two brothers organize the robbery of their parents’ jewelery store the job goes horribly wrong, triggering a series of events that sends them, their father and one brother’s wife hurtling towards a shattering climax.”
release date: Unknown

Youth Without Youth
d: Francis Ford Coppola (The Godfather, The Conversation, Apocalypse Now)
s: Tim Roth, Matt Damon, Bruno Ganz
sp: Francis Ford Coppola
imdb: “A love story wrapped in a mystery. Set in Europe before WWII, a timid professor is changed by a cataclysmic event and explores the mysteries of life.” release date: Unknown
comments: I want to believe Coppola’s got another great one in him.

And now, to further what is clearly an increasingly unhealthy hobby, here are my Oscar nominee predictions for next year, based on my gut and full of movies no one has even seen yet:

Picture
American Gangster
Charlie Wilson’s War
The Kite Runner
Lions for Lambs
Reservation Road

Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
Marc Forster (The Kite Runner)
Terry George (Reservation Road)
Mike Nichols (Charlie Wilson’s War)
Robert Redford (Lions for Lambs)

Actress
Jennifer Connelly (Reservation Road)
Catherine Keener (An American Crime)
Julianne Moore (Savage Grace)
Vanessa Redgrave (Evening)
Meryl Streep (Lions for Lambs)

Actor
Khalid Abdalla (The Kite Runner)
Russell Crowe (3:10 to Yuma)
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Joaquin Phoenix (Reservation Road)
Denzel Washington (American Gangster)

Supporting Actress
Glenn Close (Evening)
Keira Knightley (Atonement)
Rachel McAdams (Married Life)
Ellen Page (An American Crime)
Meryl Streep (Evening)

Supporting Actor
Eric Bana (The Other Boleyn Girl)
Javier Bardem (Love in the Time of Cholera)
Clive Owen (The Golden Age)
Mark Ruffalo (Reservation Road)
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)

The indies tend to be more unpredictable, which explains both the number of big studio films in here and the decided lack of minority actors. Presumably (and hopefully) that will change as the year goes on.

The 2006 movie year officially ends in about an hour with the Academy Awards. I figure if I’m going to get my opinion out there, now’s the time. Both Kyla and myself saw an absurd number of films this year — maybe we really needed the escape, or maybe it was just a great a year for this particular art form. Either way, we spent some time going over the best 2006 had to offer, and boiled down the many worthy movies and individual performances into nice little top ten lists. We did these independently of one another, not wanting to influence each other’s lists too much. Nonetheless, you’ll find there’s a good amount of crossover, which just proves these are all really worth seeing.

Here they are: