Updated Oscar picks
Well, most of the major non-Oscar nominations are out, including today’s SAG press release. Best Picture is looking more and more like a duel between Slumdog and Benjamin Button, and I have a feeling it’s going to be that way down to the end. The other three spots are likely to be filled by Milk and two of Frost/Nixon, The Dark Knight, and Revolutionary Road. Knight looks to be struggling a bit, which is ridiculous, but I still have to believe it edges in.
Anne Hathaway now has a solid advantage over all her competition in the Best Actress category. There are six other contenders at this point, and no matter who gets left out it’s going to piss people off — this is probably the single strongest category in 2008. Meryl is in, the rest are anybody’s guess — Sally Hawkins, though a major hit on most critics’ lists, took a big blow today from the bastards in the SAG. Melissa Leo gets a boost, as does Angelina although I’m still not convinced she can break in over Kristin Scott Thomas.
Best Actor has not changed. Either DiCaprio or Eastwood could squeeze in, but at this point I think Jenkins, Langella, Penn, Pitt, Rourke is starting to look like a safe prediction.
Penelope Cruz is kind of running away with the Supporting Actress category, though Viola Davis is in some ways right there with her. It’s still going to be shocking if Cruz doesn’t win unless there are some upsets in Davis’s favor at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards.
Supporting Actor still belongs to Heath Ledger and regardless of TDK’s status in Best Pic that isn’t changing.
Slumdog v. Button will continue their battle in the Best Director category, where Danny Boyle and David Fincher are the major candidates. In the Screenplay categories, I predict wins for Benjamin Button and Milk.
Full prediction chart below, with five predicted nominees in bold and winners italicized.
| Picture | Chances |
| Slumdog Millionaire | Lock |
| The Curious Case of Benjamin Button | Lock |
| Milk | Likely |
| Frost/Nixon | Possible |
| The Dark Knight | Possible |
| Revolutionary Road | Possible |
| Doubt | Possible |
| The Wrestler | Possible |
| Rachel Getting Married | Possible |
| Gran Torino | Possible |
| The Reader | Possible |
| WALL-E | Possible |
| Actress | Chances |
| Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married) | Lock |
| Meryl Streep (Doubt) | Lock |
| Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road) | Possible |
| Melissa Leo (Frozen River) | Possible |
| Kristin Scott Thomas (I’ve Loved You So Long) | Possible |
| Angelina Jolie (Changeling) | Possible |
| Sally Hawkins (Happy Go Lucky) | Possible |
| Actor | Chances |
| Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) | Lock |
| Sean Penn (Milk) | Lock |
| Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon) | Lock |
| Richard Jenkins (The Visitor) | Possible |
| Brad Pitt (Benjamin Button) | Possible |
| Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road) | Possible |
| Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino) | Possible |
| Supporting Actress | Chances |
| Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona) | Lock |
| Viola Davis (Doubt) | Lock |
| Rosemarie DeWitt (Rachel Getting Married) | Possible |
| Kate Winslet (The Reader) | Possible |
| Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler) | Possible |
| Taraji P. Henson (Benjamin Button) | Possible |
| Amy Adams (Doubt) | Possible |
| Sophie Okonedo (Secret Life of Bees) | Possible |
| Supporting Actor | Chances |
| Heath Ledger (Dark Knight) | Lock |
| Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt) | Lock |
| Josh Brolin (Milk) | Possible |
| Robert Downey, Jr. (Tropic Thunder) | Possible |
| James Franco (Milk) | Possible |
| Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire) | Possible |
| Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road) | Possible |
| Bill Irwin (Rachel Getting Married) | Possible |
| Eddie Marsan (Happy Go Lucky) | Possible |
| Director | Chances |
| David Fincher (Benjamin Button) | Likely |
| Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire) | Likely |
| Gus Van Sant (Milk) | Likely |
| Sam Mendes (Revolutionary Road) | Possible |
| Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon) | Possible |
| Jonathan Demme (Rachel Getting Married) | Possible |
| Christopher Nolan (Dark Knight) | Possible |
| John Patrick Shanley (Doubt) | Possible |
| Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino) | Possible |
| Mike Leigh (Happy Go Lucky) | Possible |
| Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler) | Possible |
| Thomas McCarthy (The Visitor) | Possible |
| Stephen Daldry (The Reader) | Possible |
| Adapted Screenplay | Chances |
| Eric Roth (Benjamin Button) | Likely |
| Simon Beaufoy (Slumdog Millionaire) | Likely |
| Justin Haythe (Revolutionary Road) | Likely |
| John Patrick Shanley (Doubt) | Likely |
| Peter Morgan (Frost/Nixon) | Likely |
| Jonathan Nolan & Christopher Nolan (Dark Knight) | Possible |
| David Hare (The Reader) | Possible |
| Original Screenplay | Chances |
| Dustin Lance Black (Milk) | Likely |
| Woody Allen (Vicky Cristina Barcelona) | Likely |
| Robert Siegel (The Wrestler) | Likely |
| Andrew Stanton & Jim Reardon (WALL-E) | Possible |
| Jenny Lumet (Rachel Getting Married) | Possible |
| Nick Schenk (Gran Torino) | Possible |
| Thomas McCarthy (The Visitor) | Possible |
| Mike Leigh (Happy Go Lucky) | Possible |
| Philippe Claudel (I’ve Loved You So Long) | Possible |
| Charlie Kaufman (Synecdoche, New York) | Possible |