Early Oscar Odds
The first stab — as in most years, I have yet to see the vast majority of these films at this point. But I’m still usually pretty good, considering. Potential nominees are split into “lock” (guaranteed nom), “likely” (would be considered a surprise if omitted), “possible” (definite contender but nothing is certain), and “unsure” (not enough information on the film at this time to say). Have at it.
| Picture |
Chances |
| Slumdog Millionaire |
Likely |
| The Curious Case of Benjamin Button |
Likely |
| Milk |
Likely |
| Revolutionary Road |
Possible |
| The Dark Knight |
Possible |
| Doubt |
Possible |
| Frost/Nixon |
Possible |
| The Wrestler |
Possible |
| Rachel Getting Married |
Possible |
| Gran Torino |
Unsure |
| The Reader |
Unsure |
| Actress |
Chances |
| Meryl Streep (Doubt) |
Likely |
| Kristin Scott Thomas (I’ve Loved You So Long) |
Likely |
| Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married) |
Likely |
| Sally Hawkins (Happy Go Lucky) |
Possible |
| Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road) |
Possible |
| Melissa Leo (Frozen River) |
Possible |
| Angelina Jolie (Changeling) |
Possible |
| Actor |
Chances |
| Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) |
Lock |
| Sean Penn (Milk) |
Lock |
| Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon) |
Lock |
| Richard Jenkins (The Visitor) |
Possible |
| Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road) |
Possible |
| Brad Pitt (Benjamin Button) |
Unsure |
| Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino) |
Unsure |
| Will Smith (Seven Pounds) |
Unsure |
| Supporting Actress |
Chances |
| Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona) |
Likely |
| Viola Davis (Doubt) |
Likely |
| Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler) |
Likely |
| Elsa Zylberstein (I’ve Loved You So Long) |
Possible |
| Rosemary DeWitt (Rachel Getting Married) |
Possible |
| Sophie Okonedo (Secret Life of Bees) |
Possible |
| Amy Adams (Doubt) |
Possible |
| Taraji P. Henson (Benjamin Button) |
Unsure |
| Tilda Swinton (Benjamin Button) |
Unsure |
| Cate Blanchett (Benjamin Button) |
Unsure |
| Kate Winslet (The Reader) |
Unsure |
| Supporting Actor |
Chances |
| Heath Ledger (Dark Knight) |
Lock |
| Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt) |
Likely |
| Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire) |
Possible |
| James Franco (Milk) |
Possible |
| Josh Brolin (Milk) |
Possible |
| Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road) |
Possible |
| Robert Downey, Jr. (Tropic Thunder) |
Possible |
| Eddie Marsan (Happy Go Lucky) |
Possible |
| Liev Schreiber (Defiance) |
Unsure |
| Ralph Fiennes (The Reader) |
Unsure |
| Director |
Chances |
| David Fincher (Benjamin Button) |
Likely |
| Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire) |
Likely |
| Jonathan Demme (Rachel Getting Married) |
Possible |
| Gus Van Sant (Milk) |
Possible |
| Sam Mendes (Revolutionary Road) |
Possible |
| Christopher Nolan (Dark Knight) |
Possible |
| John Patrick Shanley (Doubt) |
Possible |
| Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon) |
Possible |
| Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler) |
Possible |
| Mike Leigh (Happy Go Lucky) |
Possible |
| Thomas McCarthy (The Visitor) |
Possible |
| Baz Luhrmann (Australia) |
Possible |
| Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino) |
Unsure |
| Stephen Daldry (The Reader) |
Unsure |
| Adapted Screenplay |
Chances |
| Eric Roth (Benjamin Button) |
Likely |
| Simon Beaufoy (Slumdog Millionaire) |
Likely |
| Justin Haythe (Revolutionary Road) |
Likely |
| John Patrick Shanley (Doubt) |
Likely |
| Peter Morgan (Frost/Nixon) |
Likely |
| Jonathan Nolan & Christopher Nolan (Dark Knight) |
Possible |
| David Hare (The Reader) |
Unsure |
| Original Screenplay |
Chances |
| Woody Allen (Vicky Cristina Barcelona) |
Likely |
| Robert Siegel (The Wrestler) |
Likely |
| Dustin Lance Black (Milk) |
Likely |
| Andrew Stanton & Jim Reardon (WALL-E) |
Possible |
| Jenny Lumet (Rachel Getting Married) |
Possible |
| Thomas McCarthy (The Visitor) |
Possible |
| Baz Luhrmann, et al (Australia) |
Possible |
| Mike Leigh (Happy Go Lucky) |
Possible |
| Philippe Claudel (I’ve Loved You So Long) |
Possible |
| Charlie Kaufman (Synecdoche, New York) |
Possible |
| Nick Schenk (Gran Torino) |
Unsure |
| Grant Nieporte (Seven Pounds) |
Unsure |
This entry was posted on Monday, December 1st, 2008 at 6:16 pm and is filed under movies. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.