Archive for October, 2008

Final 2008 Election Predictions

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

Haven’t updated in a while, but with the election nearly upon us I probably have no useful analysis to add to what’s already out there. So instead, here are my baseless personal predictions:

Obama wins: HI, WA, OR, CA, NV, CO, NM, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, VA, DC, MD, DE, PA, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, ME
McCain wins: AK, ID, UT, AZ, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, IN, OH, KY, WV, TN, MS, AL, GA, FL, SC, NC

That’s an electoral win for Obama of 291-247. Maybe not the blowout a lot of lefties are hoping for, but a plenty reasonable margin of victory.

In the Senate, Dems will make gains but won’t achieve their magical 60 votes. The end result I expect will be 57-43, with pickups in AK, CO, NH, NM, OR, and VA. Al Franken, Jim Martin and Kay Hagan will have made a race out of it, but they probably won’t topple their incumbent opponents.

In the House… I have no idea, but I’ll say the Democrats go up to an even 250 over the Republicans’ 185. Also, Shays beats Himes.

Who else wants to place their bets?